AUD/USD set to move higher in Q4 – CIBC

Economists at CIBC Capital Markets expect the AUD/USD pair to advance nicely in the long run.

Longer-term upside for AUD/USD 

We expect a rangebound AUD/USD through Q3, but then a move higher in Q4.

Over the longer term, the overvaluation of the USD should allow the high-beta AUD to appreciate to a stronger extent than lower-beta currencies. 

Chinese stimulus will eventually be a driver of a higher AUD/USD, although we do not expect a major policy response. 

Lastly, we expect incoming Governor Bullock to be a continuation of the policymaking done under Governor Lowe, thus the change in leadership should not affect AUD pricing.

AUD/USD – Q3 2023: 0.66 | Q4 2023: 0.68