EUR: Big guns out at Sintra today – ING

As above, the euro has been the top-performing G10 currency over the last month, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

There's not much resistance now until 1.1900

"The ECB is no doubt welcoming this 'global euro' moment, but also must be acknowledging that there is an awful lot of work to be done to attract global funds out of the US. Here, we would say progress on joint EU debt would be the single biggest game-changer."

"For today, all eyes will be on the ECB's Sintra conference in Portugal, where the central bank heads from the US, eurozone, UK, Japan and Korea sit on a single panel at 1530CET. Most focus will probably be on Chair Powell and whether he wants to soften his tone on stubbornly high inflation – a dollar negative if he does. From the ECB side, the market prices one further 25bp ECB cut to 1.75% in December. It seems unlikely that President Lagarde will want to interfere in that pricing today."

"EUR/USD briefly touched 1.1800 overnight – perhaps on the re-appearance of tariff threats against Japan. Technically, there's not much resistance now until 1.1900. But the trend is a little stretched, and we would warn against buying top-side breakouts. Instead, expect good buying to come in should EUR/USD correct back to the 1.1690/1720 area."