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16 Apr 2015
SEK could depreciate further in 6-month – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Senior Analyst Stefan Mellin at Danske Bank believes the krona could lose further ground in the medium term.
Key Quotes
“Fundamentals, valuation and the relative growth outlook unambiguously support the downside in EUR/SEK”.
“However, the Riksbank, to the extent that it is credible, has closed that door for now”.
“We don't think that the Riksbank has a specific SEK rate in mind but believe they will not be passive if EUR/SEK falls rapidly. In our opinion, it’s the speed rather than the exact level that is a concern”.
“Should the Riksbank, as we predict, make no further changes in April, it could lead to some SEK appreciation”.
“However, we still expect a cut to -0.30% and an additional SEK30bn of QE within six months, which should help to keep the krona at weak (undervalued) levels”.
Key Quotes
“Fundamentals, valuation and the relative growth outlook unambiguously support the downside in EUR/SEK”.
“However, the Riksbank, to the extent that it is credible, has closed that door for now”.
“We don't think that the Riksbank has a specific SEK rate in mind but believe they will not be passive if EUR/SEK falls rapidly. In our opinion, it’s the speed rather than the exact level that is a concern”.
“Should the Riksbank, as we predict, make no further changes in April, it could lead to some SEK appreciation”.
“However, we still expect a cut to -0.30% and an additional SEK30bn of QE within six months, which should help to keep the krona at weak (undervalued) levels”.