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Noticias de trading
17 Apr 2015
UK labour data to show a below consensus gain - ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - James Knightley, Senior Economist at ING, expects today’s labour data to show that the economy continues to add significant numbers of jobs, but is failing to translate it into major pay pressure.
Key Quotes
“The consensus expectation is for employment to have increased by 170,000 over the past three months and for the unemployment rate to drop to 5.6% from 5.7%. For once, we are a little more cautious, looking for employment gains of around 145,000. Nonetheless, this is still a phenomenal achievement with total employment now 1.9 million higher than the trough seen in 2010.”
“Wage growth remains weak though with the 3M average for the YoY rate set to stay at 1.8%. Some commentators have argued that this is because the jobs that have been created have been low skilled with many on zero hour contracts (although this is not necessarily borne out in the data) while other workers have been so worried by the recession and lagged effects of the financial crisis that they have been reluctant to push for higher pay.”
“We still feel that pay growth will accelerate over coming quarters.”
“We also believe that inflation will rise fairly swiftly over the next 18 months as the effects of the oil price plunge and the supermarket price war unwinds.”
“If we are correct and the growth and inflation story isn’t dented too much by the political uncertainty being generated by the 7 May General Election then the scope for a rate hike before the end of the year remains in place.”
Key Quotes
“The consensus expectation is for employment to have increased by 170,000 over the past three months and for the unemployment rate to drop to 5.6% from 5.7%. For once, we are a little more cautious, looking for employment gains of around 145,000. Nonetheless, this is still a phenomenal achievement with total employment now 1.9 million higher than the trough seen in 2010.”
“Wage growth remains weak though with the 3M average for the YoY rate set to stay at 1.8%. Some commentators have argued that this is because the jobs that have been created have been low skilled with many on zero hour contracts (although this is not necessarily borne out in the data) while other workers have been so worried by the recession and lagged effects of the financial crisis that they have been reluctant to push for higher pay.”
“We still feel that pay growth will accelerate over coming quarters.”
“We also believe that inflation will rise fairly swiftly over the next 18 months as the effects of the oil price plunge and the supermarket price war unwinds.”
“If we are correct and the growth and inflation story isn’t dented too much by the political uncertainty being generated by the 7 May General Election then the scope for a rate hike before the end of the year remains in place.”