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20 Apr 2015
New Zealand CPI preview - ANZ
FXStreet (Bali) - Mark Smith, Senior Economist at ANZ, shared his insights on the upcoming NZ CPI data, noting that sharply lower petrol prices should contribute to a 0.2% fall in consumer prices in Q1, with annual inflation dropping to just 0.2%.
Key Quotes
"Sharply lower petrol prices should contribute to a 0.2% fall in consumer prices in Q1, with annual inflation dropping to just 0.2% - a 15 year low."
"Pricing pressure in the wider retail sector is expected to remain modest, with seasonal falls reflecting a number of domestic and global inflation suppressants."
"Our Monthly Inflation Gauge highlights potential upside risk to the RBNZ’s March MPS pick of +0.9% for non-tradable inflation."
"Like the Gauge, however, we expect rises in the CPI to be concentrated in housing and government charges and a benign picture beyond that."
"We expect core inflation measures to remain low, coming in a 0.0% to 0.2% quarterly range (+0.5% to +1.5%y/y), with some downside risk to the RBNZ’s current estimate of 1.5% annual core inflation."
"A solid domestic backdrop, resurgent property market and mixed nuances for consumer prices – subdued inflation outside of the housing group and government charges – make life difficult for the RBNZ in setting monetary policy. "
"We expect a prolonged period of stability in OCR settings."
Key Quotes
"Sharply lower petrol prices should contribute to a 0.2% fall in consumer prices in Q1, with annual inflation dropping to just 0.2% - a 15 year low."
"Pricing pressure in the wider retail sector is expected to remain modest, with seasonal falls reflecting a number of domestic and global inflation suppressants."
"Our Monthly Inflation Gauge highlights potential upside risk to the RBNZ’s March MPS pick of +0.9% for non-tradable inflation."
"Like the Gauge, however, we expect rises in the CPI to be concentrated in housing and government charges and a benign picture beyond that."
"We expect core inflation measures to remain low, coming in a 0.0% to 0.2% quarterly range (+0.5% to +1.5%y/y), with some downside risk to the RBNZ’s current estimate of 1.5% annual core inflation."
"A solid domestic backdrop, resurgent property market and mixed nuances for consumer prices – subdued inflation outside of the housing group and government charges – make life difficult for the RBNZ in setting monetary policy. "
"We expect a prolonged period of stability in OCR settings."