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20 Apr 2015
USD/JPY: 125 by year end? - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - In respect of USD/JPY, Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist noted that the cost of Brent in yen has been rising since the start of the year.
"Japan needs to import over 90% of its energy needs. In response to the 2011 nuclear disaster, in 2013 the last of Japan’s 48 functioning nuclear reactions went offline."
"PM Abe has been warning that the country must restart some of its reactors to support the economic recovery amid record imports of coal and natural gas."
"Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority had approved the restart of the reactors at the Takahama plant plus two others this year."
"However, last week judges ruled with residents against the re-start of the Takahama reactor; appeals could reportedly take months even years. The weakness of global energy prices could not have come at a better time for Japan. However, a weak yen does make Japan more vulnerable to any squeeze higher in prices."
"The forthcoming slew of Japanese corporate earnings results will provide a reading of how yen weakness has been boosting the country’s external sector; trade data are also due this week. Although official data have indicated that the economy has only just managed to limp away from last year’s consumption tax induced recession, BoJ Governor Kuroda has maintained an optimistic tone. At a speech over the weekend, Kuroda commented that “QQE implemented by the BoJ is having the intended effects and the economy is making steady progress on its way to conquering deflation”."
"In reality, Japan still has next to no inflationary pressure once the impact of the consumption tax rise is accounted for. That said, on the back of blatant government pressure there are signs that large firms have offered generous pay awards to worker in the spring (shunto) wage round."
"The Keidanren business lobby suggests that nominal wages in large firms will rise by 2.6% y/y this year, the biggest gain since 1998. This should help counter the trend which has pushed real wages lower for almost 2 year and could be an important step forward in the battle against the deflationary mindset. That said, we expect that the BoJ will resort to more easing this year. In view of the expected divergence between BoJ and Fed policy, we see risk of a move towards USD/JPY125 by year end."
"Japan needs to import over 90% of its energy needs. In response to the 2011 nuclear disaster, in 2013 the last of Japan’s 48 functioning nuclear reactions went offline."
"PM Abe has been warning that the country must restart some of its reactors to support the economic recovery amid record imports of coal and natural gas."
"Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority had approved the restart of the reactors at the Takahama plant plus two others this year."
"However, last week judges ruled with residents against the re-start of the Takahama reactor; appeals could reportedly take months even years. The weakness of global energy prices could not have come at a better time for Japan. However, a weak yen does make Japan more vulnerable to any squeeze higher in prices."
"The forthcoming slew of Japanese corporate earnings results will provide a reading of how yen weakness has been boosting the country’s external sector; trade data are also due this week. Although official data have indicated that the economy has only just managed to limp away from last year’s consumption tax induced recession, BoJ Governor Kuroda has maintained an optimistic tone. At a speech over the weekend, Kuroda commented that “QQE implemented by the BoJ is having the intended effects and the economy is making steady progress on its way to conquering deflation”."
"In reality, Japan still has next to no inflationary pressure once the impact of the consumption tax rise is accounted for. That said, on the back of blatant government pressure there are signs that large firms have offered generous pay awards to worker in the spring (shunto) wage round."
"The Keidanren business lobby suggests that nominal wages in large firms will rise by 2.6% y/y this year, the biggest gain since 1998. This should help counter the trend which has pushed real wages lower for almost 2 year and could be an important step forward in the battle against the deflationary mindset. That said, we expect that the BoJ will resort to more easing this year. In view of the expected divergence between BoJ and Fed policy, we see risk of a move towards USD/JPY125 by year end."