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24 Apr 2015
EUR/USD downtrend still in play, might see 1.04 over 12M – Rabobank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Despite EUR/USD having seen higher levels since morning, the pair still remains trapped in a sideways range, notes Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, and further forecasts the pair at 1.04, over a 12month view.
Key Quotes
“This morning’s squeeze higher in EUR/USD demonstrates that volatility in the currency pair is showing little sign of capitulating. While heightened levels of volatility have been a feature of the currency pair all year, there has been a change over the past month or so insofar EUR/USD has been trading in a choppy, sideways trend rather than lower.”
“Currently EUR/USD is on course for ending the month higher, for the first time since June 2014. That said, we are of the view that it is too early to call an end to the downtrend that has persisted since the middle of last year. For that to happen the EUR/USD1.10/1.11 resistance area would have to be cleared.”
“The Greek situation provides good reason to expect that volatility in EUR/USD will remain at a heightened level in the coming weeks. Overall, we retain our view that the view that USD strength will remain a theme for 2015, albeit at a moderated level. Our 12 mth forecast for EUR/USD stands at 1.04.”
Key Quotes
“This morning’s squeeze higher in EUR/USD demonstrates that volatility in the currency pair is showing little sign of capitulating. While heightened levels of volatility have been a feature of the currency pair all year, there has been a change over the past month or so insofar EUR/USD has been trading in a choppy, sideways trend rather than lower.”
“Currently EUR/USD is on course for ending the month higher, for the first time since June 2014. That said, we are of the view that it is too early to call an end to the downtrend that has persisted since the middle of last year. For that to happen the EUR/USD1.10/1.11 resistance area would have to be cleared.”
“The Greek situation provides good reason to expect that volatility in EUR/USD will remain at a heightened level in the coming weeks. Overall, we retain our view that the view that USD strength will remain a theme for 2015, albeit at a moderated level. Our 12 mth forecast for EUR/USD stands at 1.04.”