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24 Apr 2015
Brazil getting ready for more tightening – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Chief FX Strategist Eduardo Suarez at Scotiabank sees the Brazilian central bank hiking the benchmark rates next week.
Key Quotes
“Next week’s main event is likely to be the COPOM meeting at the BCB, where the economist consensus is split between looking for a +50bps hike, and a +25bps hike, while DI rates are fully pricing in a +50bps move due to the reinforced commitment to reaching the inflation target earlier that FinMin Levy, and the BCB, have sent since the Spring IMF meetings”.
“Our base case is that the BCB will deliver at most +50bps, +25bps and +25bps over the next three meetings, before entering a pause period”.
“However, the COPOM is not the whole story for next week as we also have fiscal numbers, which will be a major focus for markets, as we assess the likelihood of the 1.2% of GDP primary surplus target being met. In our view, markets have by now fully digested the likely outcome of an economic contraction in 2015”.
Key Quotes
“Next week’s main event is likely to be the COPOM meeting at the BCB, where the economist consensus is split between looking for a +50bps hike, and a +25bps hike, while DI rates are fully pricing in a +50bps move due to the reinforced commitment to reaching the inflation target earlier that FinMin Levy, and the BCB, have sent since the Spring IMF meetings”.
“Our base case is that the BCB will deliver at most +50bps, +25bps and +25bps over the next three meetings, before entering a pause period”.
“However, the COPOM is not the whole story for next week as we also have fiscal numbers, which will be a major focus for markets, as we assess the likelihood of the 1.2% of GDP primary surplus target being met. In our view, markets have by now fully digested the likely outcome of an economic contraction in 2015”.