Non-farm payrolls key after FOMC meeting - Commerzbank

FX market remains sceptical as regards the Fed, with attention increasingly focusing on the data, said Esther Reichelt, analyst at Commerzbank. Therefore, the labour market report for July due next Friday should therefore contribute to a correction of the dollar weakness.

Key Quotes

“The FX market also remains sceptical as regards the Fed. Despite the more optimistic statement following the meeting last Wednesday, the US dollar depreciated. Market participants clearly expect that only a number of positive data prints will convince the Fed to actually raise rates – so attention increasingly focuses on the data.”

“The labour market report for July due next Friday should therefore contribute to a correction of the dollar weakness following the FOMC meeting – if we do not see a correction before that.”

“We expect a normalisation of non-farm payroll gains just below 200k – which would confirm the solid impression of the US labour market. If the US economy remains in good shape then the FX market is also likely to consider a rate hike towards year-end to be more likely, which would support dollar.”