Canada: Trade data for June will likely feature a very wide trade deficit - Scotiabank

Research Team at Scotiabank, suggests that the Canada’s trade data for June will likely continue to feature a very wide trade deficit.

Key Quotes

“We forecast a trade deficit of C$ -3bn driven largely by declines in exports of crude oil and petroleum products. The catalyst here remains the Alberta fires. Trade data for May did not show a meaningful decline in exports in this category probably because what we think are Canada’s high crude oil inventories (which were quite swollen at the time, no differently from U.S. inventories) saw some drawing down and shipments in lieu of the shipping of newly produced oil.

We expect that this will be somewhat less of a theme for June and that a decline in exports in this category will keep the trade deficit wide despite some potential positive trend reversion in the categories that drove May’s trade deficit to a new record level.”