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3 Feb 2017
NFP Preview: Expect average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% m/m and 2.8% y/y – GS
Analysts at Goldman Sachs provide a brief insight on the expectations for the upcoming key US employment data, the NFP.
Key Points:
- Forecast +200k in January
Looking for a reacceleration, citing:
- Lower-than-usual year-end layoffs
- Favourable weather effects
- Further improvement in labour market indicators
GS believes the unemployment rate is likely to fall one-tenth to 4.6%
- which would mark a return to the cycle low
- in part driven by reduced year-end retail layoffs
GS expects average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% m/m and 2.8% y/y
- Reflecting firming labor markets & state-level minimum wage hikes