RBA preview - what to expect in AUD/USD?

AUD/USD has been drifting lower and away from the recent highs at 0.7695 scored earlier in the month as a double top with the price in overbought territory. However, the fundamentals are stacking up for a bullish case still for the Aussie, supported on a deflated DXY and higher commodity prices touched on overnight in the following Intermarket article. 

Aussie intermarket: investors to take the plunge, chase the yield and push Aussie higher?

With those aside, for now, we are focused on the RBA today. The Central Bank is expected to keep rates unchanged and while there could be substance in the accompanying statement, we will not have to wait too long for a fuller picture of where the RBA stands in respect to their quarterly Statement on monetary Policy (SoMP). The RBA does indeed have a high bar for cutting rates again given the checks and balances in respect to their positive outlook for the economy vs a deteriorating picture while the inflationary picture remains below the the bank's preferred level.

"We expect the RBA to be firmly on hold through 2017, although market doves will be looking for any hints of an easing bias in the statement today. The labour market remains central to the outlook," reaffirmed analysts at Westpac. 

AUD/USD levels

Technically the pair held support against the 100 hour MA in the NY session and moved higher off of that support level. the 100 hour sma is one to watch at  0.7633, this is below the 200 sma on the same time frame tucked in below the psychological 0.76 handle. A break higher will test the wits of the bears lined up with offers around the 0.7700 level ahead of 0.7778/.7850 2016 highs and the 38.2% retracement.