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The US-based ratings agency, Fitch ratings, published their review on the Japanese banks that summarizes the challenges of Abenomics and Japanese mega banks' multiple headwinds under the current operating environment.
Key Quotes:
“Overall performance of the Japanese banking system remains stymied despite sound domestic asset quality and credit costs.”
“We view NIRP as holding back the banking system's net interest revenue, while having little impact on Japan's real economy.”
“We estimate a 10bp reduction in the market-linked lending rate would hit the mega banks' aggregate gross operating profit by JPY100bn in fiscal year (FYE17, ending March 2017), although there is little room for the base rate to fall further. “
“To offset the decline in net interest income in FYE17, domestic loans would need to have grown at an annual rate of 5%-6%, higher than the past three fiscal years' average growth rate of 3%.”
“The mega banks' domestic loan balances have changed little since the introduction of Abenomics, given weak credit demand and the banks' focus on overseas expansion.“
“Asset quality in their portfolio has improved, and is likely to remain sound, while the growth in risk-weighted assets (RWA) is in line with the banks' asset growth, indicating no significant increase in risk appetite in recent years.”
“However, we believe overseas expansion would add challenges in credit risks and competition.”
