US: Looking for a 0.5% gain in headline retail sales - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac are looking for a 0.5% gain in US headline retail sales and a similar result for the core series and suggest that this growth should continue in coming months.  

Key Quotes

“During the June quarter, there was a distinct loss of momentum in retail sales – a 0.3% gain in April followed by a 0.1% decline in May and a 0.2% fall in June. Core retail sales (ex autos and gas) were a little stronger but still quite weak, with a gain of 0.4% followed by a flat outcome and a –0.1%.”

“Through the quarter, weak inflation was a key cause of the soft nominal sales trend, both for gas and more broadly. Importantly, from the GDP consumption detail, it is evident that volumes were actually better in the June quarter than in the March quarter, when durables sales volumes were flat.”

“The momentum in sale volumes in the June quarter points to a rebound in nominal retail sales from July as the negative influence of prices abates.”