FOMC minutes showed divided opinions – UOB

Analyst Alvin Liew at UOB Group assessed yesterday’s release of the FOMC minutes.

Key Quotes

“The 2 key takeaways from the July FOMC minutes were 1) There is broad agreement to begin the Fed Reserve’s balance sheet reduction (BSR) “relatively soon” but 2) there is a divide between Fed policy makers over when to hike interest rates due to differing views on US inflation developments”.

“The FOMC minutes gave more confidence that the BSR announcement will be in the upcoming September FOMC although a caveat for the projection is that the US debt ceiling limit issue is a non-event which remains our base case scenario”.

“We retain our next rate hike forecast to be at December 2017 FOMC while still being mindful about US inflation developments”.

“The next key event for the Fed Reserve could be the annual monetary policy symposium organized by the Federal Reserve of Kansas City (Jackson Hole Symposium) on 24-27 August but FOMC Chair Yellen has yet to confirm her attendance”.