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Gautam Kalani, Strategist at Deutsche Bank, suggests that the price action over the past 3 weeks has been encouraging for their tactically bearish CZK view.
Key Quotes
“There has been a rate hike, higher than expected inflation reading and a very strong Q2 GDP print, but the currency has been unable to sustain a rally. This likely confirms that long CZK positioning - which was our main argument for initiating the short CZK trade - is indeed a concern; the CNB also highlighted this multiple times at its meeting in early August. As a result, EURCZK risks in the near term are highly skewed to the upside, in our view; further, long EURCZK is carry-positive.”
“Foreign positioning in local currency bills is extremely high and there are large upcoming redemptions, which present a risk to the currency. The increase in issuance of bills earlier this year was likely due to enhanced foreign demand for short-end assets, which in turn was driven (to a large extent) by the expectation of FX floor removal and subsequent CZK appreciation. With significant CZK appreciation having already taken place and CZK no longer undervalued on fundamental metrics, there is a risk of foreign holders of bills not rolling over positions at the upcoming redemptions, which would in turn lead to CZK weakness. This is exacerbated by the limited issuance of bills/bonds over September – while there is a record USD 7.3bn in redemption of bills in September, the issuance plan only includes USD 0.7bn of bonds and no bill issuance. Hence, with limited rollover options, there is increased likelihood that at least some fraction of these foreign bill holders exit CZK assets altogether, which should be sufficient to trigger FX depreciation given the large sizes involved.”
