NZ Elections: Polling suggests that National would gain the largest share of votes - Westpac

New Zealand’s General Election, scheduled for Saturday 23 September are likely to be of most interest to overseas financial market participants, who may have less familiarity with the New Zealand electoral system, explains the research team at Westpac.

Key Quotes

“For much of this year, public polling suggested that National would gain the largest share of votes by a substantial margin, though it would still require the support of NZ First and/or other minor parties in order to reach a majority.”

“However, the balance has changed dramatically since early August, when a change of leadership for the Labour Party revitalised its prospects. The election now looks very close. Which party is ahead now varies by polling company. Colmar Brunton polls suggest that the Labour Party is four percentage points ahead of National, Reid Research polls have National ten percentage points ahead of Labour, and Roy Morgan has the two parties within half a percentage point of each other.”