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A key factor in the shift in tone in the USD, it seems is the change in regime in the global equity market, suggests Greg Gibbs, Analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital.
Key Quotes
“Since late-Jan, equity markets have become much more volatile, after a year of so remarkably low volatile but steady rapid appreciation in equities.”
“During that time equity markets dominated capital flows and interest rate developments barely registered in investors’ decisions. The general refrain was that Fed rate hikes were gradual, likely to be limited and will not derail a global economic recovery.”
“The turning point for the USD was virtually the peak in the equity market rally in January. It took a while, Feb through much of April, for the USD to fully break out of its bearish funk, but the market is more convinced now that it needs to look beyond the equity market for performance.”
“The USD also performed strongly, especially against EM currencies during the equity market upheavals in 2015/2016.”
