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US: Annual CPI to rise to 2.4% from 2.1% – TD Securities

Previewing Tuesday's inflation report from the US, "the overall CPI (forecast: up 0.3%) was probably boosted by gasoline prices, which were falling a year ago; the 12-month change probably rose to 2.4% from 2.1%," said TD Securities analysts.

Key quotes

"We expect a 0.2% rise in the trend-setting core index. The 12-month change in core probably held at 2.3%, although it is a close call between 2.3% and 2.4%. A 0.22% m/m rise would likely be enough for 2.4%; we have 0.21%."

"Our forecast for CPI should keep the 10y in the 1.75-1.9% range. A weaker report should have a disproportionate impact on rates. TIPS breakevens have risen in recent months, pricing in the improvement in global and US data and a dovish Fed."

BoC: Q4 Business Outlook Survey points to broadly positive business sentiment

The business sentiment in Canada remained broadly positive in the fourth quarter, except in the prairies, where indicators were weak, the Bank of Cana
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US to remove 'currency manipulator' tag on China ahead of phase-one deal

The United States, who formally labelled China a 'currency manipulator' back in August, will remove this tag on China before sides sign the phase-one
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