US: CPI likely to accelerate slightly – TDS

According to analysts at TD Securities, the US overall CPI (forecast: up 0.3%) was probably boosted by gasoline prices, which were falling a year ago; the 12-month change probably rose to 2.4% from 2.1%.

Key Quotes

“We expect a 0.2% rise in the trend-setting core index. The 12-month change in core probably held at 2.3%, although it is a close call between 2.3% and 2.4%. A 0.22% m/m rise would likely be enough for 2.4%; we have 0.21%.”

“We are allowing for a modest boost to apparel prices from new sampling procedures introduced last year. Gains in core prices have averaged 0.19% per month in the last 12 months. The 12-month change in core prices was 2.2% in December 2018, so there has been slight—just slight—acceleration in the past year.”