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23 Apr 2013
Forex Flash: Kiwi downside favored amidst mounting risk? – BNZ
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Following the China data, attention shifted to European PMIs Tuesday. However, “as seen in the recent price action, market positioning means the NZD is particularly vulnerable to any nasty surprises on global growth this week – the balance of risks favors the downside.” notes the BNZ Research Team.
Still, “absent a full blown equity market meltdown, we think support in the 0.8250/0.8300 window will contain any near-term pull-backs in NZD/USD. Notable in this regard, our new short-term valuation model suggests current NZD/USD ‘fundamentals’ are equivalent to a short-term ‘fair-value’ range of 0.8450-0.8850.” the team adds.
Our analysis suggests the Fed’s quantitative easing policies are currently adding around 10 cents onto this ‘fair-value range.
Still, “absent a full blown equity market meltdown, we think support in the 0.8250/0.8300 window will contain any near-term pull-backs in NZD/USD. Notable in this regard, our new short-term valuation model suggests current NZD/USD ‘fundamentals’ are equivalent to a short-term ‘fair-value’ range of 0.8450-0.8850.” the team adds.
Our analysis suggests the Fed’s quantitative easing policies are currently adding around 10 cents onto this ‘fair-value range.