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6 Feb 2020
Currencies: US hitting CEEMEA currencies – Rabobank
Outstanding US economic data and investors’ demand for US assets are putting Central & Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa (CEEMEA) currencies under strain, according to Piotr Matys, an FX Strategist at Rabobank.
Key quotes
“The CEEMEA currencies are struggling to fully recover from their losses caused by the coronavirus as the US dollar is benefiting from a strong set of domestic data published so far this week.”
“Amongst its G10 peers, the US economy remains the most attractive and this is also reflected in persistent demand for the US assets.”
“Since the trade war between the US and China started in Q2 2018, the EM stocks have underperformed the S&P 500 Index.”
“Prevailing demand for the US assets may limit scope for the CEEMEA currencies to appreciate against the dollar even if sentiment improves. It is worth noting that the Bloomberg Dollar Index has broken above the downside trendline from the October high. This is a constructive technical signal for the dollar which may extend its gains towards the November top at 1211.28.”