China: CPI Inflation to ease – Standard Chartered

China will release FX reserves data and trade data for January-February on 7 March, while inflation data will be released on 10 March. Strategists at Standard Chartered Bank share their expectations. USD/CNY trades at 6.934.

Key quotes

“We expect FX reserves to have increased to USD 3.124tn at end-February from USD 3.116tn at end-January.”

“We expect imports to have fallen at a slower pace (-13% y/y) in January-February than exports (-20%), as orders placed before the outbreak likely arrived in February.” 

“In addition, China increased its imports of food and medical supplies. As a result, the trade surplus likely narrowed to USD 11.3bn in January-February.”

“CPI inflation likely eased 0.5ppt to 5.0% y/y in February. We expect non-food CPI inflation to have eased to 1.1% y/y in February from 1.6% prior.”