Coronavirus: One for the record books – TDS

As the dust settles a bit in financial markets and early activity indicators have begun to trickle in, analysts at TD Securities update  global growth forecast.

Key quotes

“Export data deteriorated sharply in January 2020 to its weakest growth rate since 2009, at -2.6% y/y. We expect some distortions in the data in coming months, but the broad story is one of a sustained drag on global growth coming from international trade.”

“Across major developed economies, we expect sharp declines in 2020Q2 growth, with about -25% (q/q, annualised) in the US and Canada, and between -10% and -15% (q/q, not annualised) in the euro area and the UK.”

“Our broader 2020 and 2021 growth forecasts put global GDP growth around -2.3% in 2020 and 3.6% in 2021. On the surface, this looks like a healthy rebound in global GDP growth to an above-trend pace next year (trend is around 3.3%).”